{"id":4468,"date":"2025-08-20T19:18:14","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T19:18:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/castco.wpenginepowered.com\/?post_type=ht_kb&#038;p=4468"},"modified":"2026-02-11T14:30:21","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T14:30:21","slug":"guidance-weight-of-evidence","status":"publish","type":"ht_kb","link":"https:\/\/castco.org\/knowledge-base\/guidance-weight-of-evidence\/","title":{"rendered":"Guidance: Weight of Evidence"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>What do we mean by Weight of Evidence<\/strong>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we talk about <em>evidence<\/em><a href=\"#evidence\">*<\/a>, we don\u2019t just mean raw data. Valuable information can come in many forms: water quality samples, survey results, local observations, photographs or official records. Each source has its own strengths and limitations, but <strong>when you bring them together, they create a more complete picture of issues with river health<\/strong> <strong>and catchments<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is what we call the <strong>Weight of Evidence<\/strong> (or WoE). Here, \u201cweight\u201d means the ability to balance different types of information to build a picture that can guide decisions.<strong>The picture is never perfect or complete.<\/strong> This approach can help groups develop a shared understanding of the issues, build trust, reach consensus, and decide what action to take. Different pieces of evidence can either refute or support an assumption.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"336\" data-src=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Data-sources-1024x336.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4372 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/336;width:700px\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Data-sources-1024x336.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Data-sources-640x210.jpg 640w, https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Data-sources-768x252.jpg 768w, https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Data-sources-50x16.jpg 50w, https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Data-sources-1280x421.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Data-sources.jpg 1455w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why use a \u2018Weight of Evidence\u2019 approach?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Environmental decisions, whether about restoration, regulation, or risk, are never black and white. They require us to interpret information in context, especially when different sectors, disciplines, and monitoring methods are involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Weight of Evidence approach<\/strong> helps by:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Bridging data gaps<\/strong> by combining quantitative and qualitative information.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Building a shared picture<\/strong> that groups can use to agree on issues and priorities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Improving transparency<\/strong> by showing how information from different origins is considered.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Making space for local knowledge<\/strong>, including citizen science contributions alongside professional monitoring.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Supporting proportionate decisions<\/strong>, especially when action is needed despite uncertainty.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Identifying where more information is required<\/strong> to help confirm an assumption &#8211; this may, for example, include taking mroe samples or collecting from different locations or parameters or making more frequent observations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if the picture isn\u2019t perfect, it can still be enough to move forward together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What types of data can be included?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Regulatory and compliance monitoring data<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Academic and research datasets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Citizen and community science data and observations<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Modelling outputs and remote sensing<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Historical or legacy data<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Photographic evidence or field notes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Each of these types has strengths and limitations. A Weight of Evidence (WoE) approach acknowledges this by using structured methods to evaluate their relevance, reliability, and contribution to the overall question or assumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How to apply it in practice<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There is no single recipe for applying a Weight of Evidence approach. The key is to use the information available in a structured way that supports collective decision-making. Most approaches involve:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Defining the decision context<\/strong>: What question are you trying to answer, and what decision needs to be supported?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Identifying all relevant sources of information<\/strong>: From regulatory data to citizen observations, photos, models, and historical records.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Assessing data quality and uncertainty<\/strong>: Recognise strengths, gaps, and limitations in each source.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Weighing the information<\/strong>: Compare and balance findings across sources to see where they align or diverge.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Developing a shared understanding<\/strong>: Use the combined picture to agree on issues and priorities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Drawing conclusions with justification<\/strong>: Document how you reached your decision so it is transparent and repeatable.<br><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Example<\/strong>: Beane Demo Catchment WoE analysis<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The Beane Demo Catchment have worked on a comprehensive demonstration of a Weight of Evidence analysis. You can view the <a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Beane-WQ-Analysis_V3.0.pdf\">full analysis pdf<\/a> here and <a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/case-study\/beane-demo\/\">read more in their case study<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Example<\/strong>: Eutrophication assessment WoE in the Ribble Demo Catchment<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Environment Agency\u2019s eutrophication assessments are beginning to use citizen science as part of their Weight of Evidence analysis for the Ribble. <a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/case-study\/eutrophication-assessments\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">In this case study<\/a>, we demonstrate that including citizen science data can change the eutrophication assessments in the Ribble at both the catchment and watershed scale. You can view the <a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/WoE-Ribble-Case-Study-V2.1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">full analysis pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other examples of WoE in CaSTCo<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The CaSTCo project embraces Weight of Evidence as a key principle. Our catchment-based approach brings together statutory agencies, local experts, researchers, and citizen scientists to co-design monitoring plans that reflect shared priorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;re developing tools and case studies that demonstrate how data from different sources can be meaningfully combined, even when methodologies differ. This helps move us from data collection to decision-making faster without compromising on rigour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover is-light add-cover-padding\" style=\"min-height:220px;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1500\" height=\"490\" class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-99 lazyload\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/section-bkground-2-e1732649056461.png\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1500px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1500\/490;object-position:36% 100%\" data-object-fit=\"cover\" data-object-position=\"36% 100%\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/section-bkground-2-e1732649056461.png 1500w, https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/section-bkground-2-e1732649056461-640x209.png 640w, https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/section-bkground-2-e1732649056461-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/section-bkground-2-e1732649056461-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/section-bkground-2-e1732649056461-1280x418.png 1280w, https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/section-bkground-2-e1732649056461-50x16.png 50w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-background-dim\" style=\"background-color:#fafef1\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group block is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-094a7bb8 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-bg-alt-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-9b3bfc66b04e415c1a6be1ec0690847d\">Weight of Evidence applied in CaSTCo demontrator catchments<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Many of the demonstrators combined data sources to help them make evidence-informed decisions, including the <a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/case-study\/severn-bacteria\/\">Teme exploring bacteria monitoring<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/case-study\/riverblitz-informing-holistic-monitoring-and-action\/\">the Ribble&#8217;s blitz events identifying issues and solutions<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/case-study\/thames21-empower-rivers\/\">Thames 21 using Outfall Safari and other data to identify missed connections<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-16018d1d wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/powered-by-castco\/\">Explore all case studies<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Inspiration<\/strong>: Foundations of Weight of Evidence<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>These examples from &#8220;Evidence &amp; Measures&#8221; programme (created for Defra and the Environment Agency) are 2-page foundational case studies that informed the Weight of Evidence approach in CaSTCo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ChangesInTime_SN_2030i3.pdf\">The Value of a Longer-Term View: Using Variations over Time to Understand Catchments (pdf)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ConsentedDischarges_SN_V1_2030i3.pdf\">Consented Discharges: Processing and Making More of Available Data (pdf)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/DownstreamChanges_SN_V1_2030i3.pdf\">Downstream Changes in Water Quality and Biology: Generating Evidence For or Against Suspected Causes (pdf)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/EvidenceTables_SN_V1.0_2030i5.pdf\">Strength of Evidence Tables: Helping to Make Decisions on Causes of Poor Status (pdf)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ProcessingPollutionIncidentsNIRS_SN_V1_2030i3.pdf\">Using Pollution Incident Data: Databases and Making More of NIRS (pdf)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/UrbanPressures_SN_V1.0_2030i5.pdf\">Urban Pressures: Storm Overflows, Wrong Connections and Landfill (pdf)<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ValueOfThePast_SN_V1.0_2030i5.pdf\">The Value of the Past: Use of Old Reports, Data and Opinions (pdf)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"evidence\"><em>* Evidence is \u2018relevant information used to assess one or more assumptions related to a question of interest\u2019 (modified from Salafsky et al., 2019)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What do we mean by Weight of Evidence? When we talk about evidence*, we don\u2019t just mean raw data. Valuable information can come in many&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"ht-kb-category":[78],"ht-kb-tag":[],"class_list":["post-4468","ht_kb","type-ht_kb","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","ht_kb_category-make-a-difference"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Guidance: Weight of Evidence - CastCo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/castco.org\/knowledge-base\/guidance-weight-of-evidence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Guidance: Weight of Evidence - CastCo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What do we mean by Weight of Evidence? 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